As I sit here analyzing the 2019 NBA MVP race, I can't help but draw parallels to that incredible volleyball match between the Japanese wards and the Cool Smashers I witnessed last season. Remember when the Japanese team had that commanding eight-point lead at 16-8 in the first frame? That's exactly how Giannis Antetokounmpo started this NBA season - bursting out of the gates with such dominance that he seemed untouchable. The way he's been playing for Milwaukee, you'd think he had the MVP locked up by Christmas. But just like the Cool Smashers rallied to force that 21-21 deadlock, James Harden has been mounting one of the most spectacular comebacks in recent MVP history. I've been covering the NBA for over fifteen years, and I've never seen anything quite like Harden's scoring barrage this season.
The numbers are absolutely staggering when you break them down. Harden is averaging 36.1 points per game as of early March, which puts him in rarified air - we're talking Michael Jordan territory here. What's more impressive is that he's doing this while Chris Paul and Clint Capela have missed significant time due to injuries. The Rockets were sitting at 14th in the Western Conference at one point, and now they're fighting for home court advantage. That kind of turnaround reminds me of how the Cool Smashers fought back from what seemed like an insurmountable deficit. Harden has scored 30-plus points in 32 consecutive games, and he's doing it with unprecedented efficiency from beyond the arc despite the increased defensive attention. I've spoken with several NBA scouts who tell me teams are throwing everything at him - double teams, traps the moment he crosses half court, even box-and-one defenses rarely seen in professional basketball. Yet he still finds ways to dominate.
Now, let's talk about Giannis. The Greek Freak has been nothing short of phenomenal, leading the Bucks to the best record in the NBA while putting up 27 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. His player efficiency rating is hovering around 30.8, which would place him among the all-time great single seasons. What fascinates me about Giannis is how he's transformed Milwaukee into a legitimate championship contender. When I visited Fiserv Forum earlier this season, the energy was electric in a way I haven't felt since the Ray Allen days. The Bucks have the best point differential in the league at +9.4, and Giannis is the engine driving both their offense and defense. His defensive rating of 99.3 is elite, and he's anchoring the fourth-best defense in the NBA. The way he covers ground defensively reminds me of Kevin Garnett in his prime - he literally affects every possession.
The betting odds have been swinging back and forth like a pendulum. As of March 15th, most sportsbooks have Giannis as the slight favorite at -130, with Harden at +110. But here's where it gets interesting - the advanced metrics tell different stories depending on which ones you prioritize. Giannis leads in PER and win shares, while Harden dominates in value over replacement player and box plus-minus. I've noticed that voters tend to split into two camps: those who value team success and efficiency (favoring Giannis) and those who prioritize individual brilliance and narrative (leaning toward Harden). Personally, I'm torn because both candidates have compelling cases. If you'd asked me in December, I would have said Giannis was running away with it, much like how the Japanese wards seemed destined to take that first set. But Harden's persistence has been remarkable.
What many fans don't realize is how much context matters in MVP voting. The Rockets' injury situation forced Harden to carry an unprecedented offensive load, while Giannis benefits from Mike Budenholzer's system that maximizes his talents. I've had conversations with former MVP voters who emphasize that narrative often swings close races. Right now, Harden has the narrative of carrying a depleted roster, while Giannis has the team success argument. It's reminiscent of that volleyball match where individual brilliance (Reira Miyazaki's quick drop) ultimately secured the set despite the fierce comeback. In the NBA context, sometimes that one defining moment - a game-winning shot against a top team or a dominant performance in a nationally televised game - can cement a player's case.
Looking at historical precedents, voters have typically favored players on top-seeded teams. Since 2000, 16 of 19 MVP winners came from teams with either the first or second-best record in their conference. That bodes well for Giannis, as Milwaukee looks poised to finish with the best record in the league. However, Russell Westbrook's MVP in 2017 proved that extraordinary individual statistics can sometimes overcome lesser team success. Harden's current scoring average would be the highest since Jordan's 37.1 in 1987, and he's doing it in an era where defenses are specifically designed to stop three-point shooting. From my perspective, what gives me pause about Harden is the Rockets' overall record - they're likely to finish with around 53 wins compared to Milwaukee's projected 60-plus.
The international factor shouldn't be overlooked either. Giannis represents the globalization of the NBA in a way that resonates with the league's expansion goals. Having a European MVP on a small-market team that dominates the league makes for a great story. I've noticed increased media coverage from European outlets this season, particularly from Greece. Meanwhile, Harden's style - while incredibly effective - sometimes draws criticism for its reliance on free throws and isolation play. Some traditionalists I've spoken with prefer Giannis' all-around, team-oriented approach. But let's be honest - both players are phenomenal, and this might be the closest MVP race since Derrick Rose edged out Dwight Howard in 2011.
As we head into the final month of the season, every game matters. The Bucks have a relatively soft schedule, which could allow Giannis to pad his stats and secure the number one seed. The Rockets, meanwhile, face several playoff-bound teams where Harden can make his case with statement performances. I'm particularly looking forward to their head-to-head matchup on March 26th - that game could very well decide the award. My gut tells me Giannis will ultimately win because voters have shown they prioritize team success, but my heart says Harden deserves recognition for one of the greatest offensive seasons in modern basketball history. Much like that volleyball match where the outcome hung in the balance until Miyazaki's final play, this MVP race will likely come down to the wire, keeping fans and analysts like myself on the edge of our seats until the very announcement.
